Sovereign analytics · independent benchmarking
2025 Sovereign Credit Validation
Concurrent benchmark—not a regulated rating: the table compares the current experimental SOW assessment with long-term foreign-currency sovereign ratings recorded for the 2025 reference edition. It measures concordance, not predictive accuracy. Agency entries are a governed research transcription and must retain rating date, outlook and source.
10
Countries benchmarkedReviewed calibration panel
30%
Exact gradeSOW representative grade versus agency median
40%
Within one notchOrdinal common-scale comparison
1.9 notches
Mean absolute gapLower is closer
2025 agency comparison
| Country | SOW score | SOW grade | S&P | Moody’s | Fitch | Agency median | SOW gap (notches) | Agreement | Reference date | Evidence status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | 86.5 | AAA | AAA · Stable | Aaa · Stable | AAA · Stable | AAA | 0 | Exact | 2025-12-31 | provisional_agency_benchmark |
| Switzerland | 88.8 | AAA | AAA · Stable | Aaa · Stable | AAA · Stable | AAA | 0 | Exact | 2025-12-31 | provisional_agency_benchmark |
| Germany | 81.1 | AA | AAA · Stable | Aaa · Stable | AAA · Stable | AAA | 2 | Within 2 notches | 2025-12-31 | provisional_agency_benchmark |
| Japan | 75.9 | A | A+ · Stable | A1 · Stable | A · Stable | A+ | 1 | Within 1 notch | 2025-12-31 | provisional_agency_benchmark |
| United Kingdom | 77.6 | A | AA · Stable | Aa3 · Stable | AA- · Stable | AA- | 2 | Within 2 notches | 2025-12-31 | provisional_agency_benchmark |
| United States | 76.3 | A | AA+ · Stable | Aa1 · Stable | AA+ · Stable | AA+ | 4 | Material divergence | 2025-12-31 | provisional_agency_benchmark |
| China | 66.2 | BBB | A+ · Stable | A1 · Negative | A · Negative | A+ | 4 | Material divergence | 2025-12-31 | provisional_agency_benchmark |
| Brazil | 58.5 | BB | BB · Stable | Ba1 · Positive | BB · Stable | BB | 0 | Exact | 2025-12-31 | provisional_agency_benchmark |
| India | 70.1 | A | BBB- · Stable | Baa3 · Stable | BBB- · Stable | BBB- | -4 | Material divergence | 2025-12-31 | provisional_agency_benchmark |
| Pakistan | 34.8 | CCC | B- · Stable | Caa1 · Stable | B- · Stable | B- | 2 | Within 2 notches | 2025-12-31 | provisional_agency_benchmark |
Validation design
- Ratings are translated to a common 22-notch ordinal scale while original agency notation is preserved.
- The median available agency grade is the concurrent comparison benchmark.
- Exact, within-one-notch, within-two-notch and mean absolute notch-gap measures are published.
- Missing agency ratings remain unavailable and are never imputed.
- Material divergences require a country-level explanation before publication.
Stronger prospective test
A genuine 2025 out-of-sample back-test must freeze the SOW model and source data at 31 December 2024, then compare predicted 2025 upgrades, downgrades and distress events with rating actions and realised outcomes. This page keeps that prospective test distinct from contemporaneous agency agreement.
Agency source register
S&P Global Sovereigns Research · Moody’s Ratings · Fitch Sovereigns Research
Agency names and rating symbols belong to their respective owners. Their inclusion does not imply endorsement of SOW. Editorial verification against the linked agency record is required whenever the reference edition changes.