Development sequence
Illustrative calculation: 0.55E + 0.30F + 0.15S − constrained-exclusion penalty = 64. The current published analytical estimate is 64.
Transparent global rankings, intelligence and foresight · SIID
A focused suite for development capacity, financial sovereignty, debt sustainability and experimental sovereign-credit assessment. Individual subject maps remain under Topics; general cross-topic composites remain under Indices.
Developing capacity · illustrative range 59–69
High
Manageable but vulnerable
A-equivalent experimental
Illustrative calculation: 0.55E + 0.30F + 0.15S − constrained-exclusion penalty = 64. The current published analytical estimate is 64.
CDSI 40% · NFSI 20% · economic strength 15% · institutional credibility 15% · political/event resilience 10%.
A-equivalent experimental
Direction: Improving · evidence edition 2026-08.
Currency denomination, transfer and convertibility conditions, expected recovery and exceptional-event adjustments will be shown separately when evidence is sufficient.
| Rank | Country | Score | Uncertainty | Evidence grade | Direction | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Norway | 93 | ±4.5 | C · reviewed calibration | Stable | Preliminary estimate |
| 2 | Switzerland | 92.1 | ±4.5 | C · reviewed calibration | Stable | Preliminary estimate |
| 3 | Germany | 89.5 | ±5 | C · reviewed calibration | Stable | Preliminary estimate |
| 4 | Japan | 88.5 | ±6 | C · reviewed calibration | Deteriorating | Preliminary estimate |
| 5 | United Kingdom | 86.8 | ±5.5 | C · reviewed calibration | Stable | Preliminary estimate |
| 6 | United States | 83 | ±6 | C · reviewed calibration | Deteriorating | Preliminary estimate |
| 7 | Netherlands | 81.5 | ±9 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 8 | Austria | 81.4 | ±9.1 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 9 | Australia | 80 | ±9 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 10 | Italy | 78.8 | ±9 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 11 | Poland | 77.6 | ±9.1 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 12 | Croatia | 77.4 | ±9.1 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 13 | San Marino | 77 | ±9 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 14 | Sweden | 76.7 | ±9 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 15 | China | 76.2 | ±6 | C · reviewed calibration | Deteriorating | Preliminary estimate |
| 16 | Russia | 75.7 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 17 | Serbia | 75.7 | ±9 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 18 | Singapore | 75.6 | ±9 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 19 | Andorra | 75.1 | ±9 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 20 | Belarus | 75.1 | ±9.1 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 21 | Luxembourg | 74.7 | ±9 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 22 | Canada | 74.6 | ±9.1 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 23 | Finland | 74.4 | ±9 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 24 | Ukraine | 73.4 | ±9.1 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 25 | Denmark | 72.6 | ±9 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 26 | France | 72.6 | ±9.2 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 27 | Kiribati | 72.3 | ±9.1 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 28 | Slovakia | 72.1 | ±9.1 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 29 | Spain | 72.1 | ±9.2 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 30 | Jamaica | 72 | ±9.1 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 31 | Cuba | 71.9 | ±9.1 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 32 | Czechia | 71.9 | ±9.1 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 33 | Moldova | 71.8 | ±9.1 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 34 | Ireland | 71.7 | ±9 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 35 | Greece | 71.5 | ±9.2 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 36 | Romania | 71.4 | ±9.1 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 37 | Marshall Islands | 71.2 | ±9.1 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 38 | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 70.5 | ±9 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 39 | Dominican Republic | 70.5 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 40 | Liechtenstein | 70.4 | ±9.1 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 41 | New Zealand | 70.4 | ±9 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 42 | Hungary | 70.2 | ±9.2 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 43 | Bahamas | 69.7 | ±9.1 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 44 | Monaco | 69.7 | ±9 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 45 | North Macedonia | 69.7 | ±9 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 46 | Belgium | 69.5 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 47 | Cyprus | 69.5 | ±9.1 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 48 | Uzbekistan | 69.5 | ±9.2 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 49 | Philippines | 69.4 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 50 | Guatemala | 69.2 | ±9.1 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 51 | Brazil | 69.1 | ±7 | C · reviewed calibration | Deteriorating | Preliminary estimate |
| 52 | Iceland | 69.1 | ±9.1 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 53 | Iran | 69 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 54 | Slovenia | 69 | ±9.1 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 55 | Malta | 68.9 | ±9.1 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 56 | Bulgaria | 68.3 | ±9.1 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 57 | Saint Vincent and the Grenadines | 68.3 | ±9.2 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 58 | Sri Lanka | 68.3 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 59 | Indonesia | 67.9 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 60 | Timor-Leste | 67.7 | ±9.1 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 61 | Haiti | 67.6 | ±9.2 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 62 | Portugal | 67.5 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 63 | Saudi Arabia | 67.5 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 64 | Tuvalu | 67.4 | ±9.2 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 65 | Lithuania | 67.3 | ±9.2 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 66 | Vanuatu | 67.3 | ±9.1 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 67 | Latvia | 67.2 | ±9.2 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 68 | Afghanistan | 67.1 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 69 | Nicaragua | 67.1 | ±9.1 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 70 | Nauru | 66.9 | ±9 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 71 | Honduras | 66.5 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 72 | Albania | 66.4 | ±9.2 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 73 | Colombia | 66.4 | ±9.2 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 74 | Micronesia | 66.4 | ±9.2 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 75 | Kazakhstan | 66.2 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 76 | Peru | 66.1 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 77 | Holy See | 65.9 | ±9 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 78 | Turkmenistan | 65.6 | ±9.2 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 79 | Venezuela | 65.3 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 80 | Ecuador | 65.2 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 81 | Solomon Islands | 65.2 | ±9.2 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 82 | Thailand | 65.1 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 83 | Barbados | 64.8 | ±9.2 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 84 | Estonia | 64.8 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 85 | Palau | 64.8 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 86 | Panama | 64.6 | ±9.2 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 87 | Grenada | 64.3 | ±9.1 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 88 | Costa Rica | 64.2 | ±9.2 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 89 | El Salvador | 64.1 | ±9.2 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 90 | India | 64 | ±5 | C · reviewed calibration | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 91 | Cambodia | 63.9 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 92 | Papua New Guinea | 63.9 | ±9.2 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 93 | South Korea | 63.8 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 94 | Montenegro | 63.7 | ±9.2 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 95 | Paraguay | 63.7 | ±9.2 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 96 | Türkiye | 63.6 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 97 | Kyrgyzstan | 63.5 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 98 | Belize | 63.3 | ±9.2 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 99 | Bangladesh | 63.2 | ±9.2 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 100 | Viet Nam | 62.9 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 101 | Chile | 62.6 | ±9.2 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 102 | State of Palestine | 62.6 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 103 | Dominica | 62.5 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 104 | Malaysia | 62.5 | ±9.2 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 105 | Mexico | 62.4 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 106 | Syria | 62.4 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 107 | Eritrea | 62.3 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 108 | Saint Lucia | 61.7 | ±9.2 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 109 | Oman | 61.5 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 110 | Samoa | 61.2 | ±9.2 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 111 | Myanmar | 61.1 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 112 | Tonga | 61.1 | ±9.2 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 113 | Azerbaijan | 61 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 114 | Lao PDR | 61 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 115 | Niger | 61 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 116 | United Arab Emirates | 61 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 117 | Algeria | 60.9 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 118 | Kuwait | 60.7 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 119 | Angola | 60.4 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 120 | Iraq | 60.4 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 121 | Burkina Faso | 59.8 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 122 | Guinea | 59.7 | ±9.2 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 123 | Lebanon | 59.7 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 124 | Uruguay | 59.5 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 125 | Israel | 59.4 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 126 | Jordan | 59.3 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 127 | Equatorial Guinea | 59.2 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 128 | Saint Kitts and Nevis | 59.2 | ±9.2 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 129 | North Korea | 59.1 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 130 | Morocco | 59 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 131 | Burundi | 58.9 | ±9.5 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 132 | Nigeria | 58.8 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 133 | Zimbabwe | 58.7 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 134 | Antigua and Barbuda | 58.6 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 135 | Eswatini | 58.5 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 136 | Tunisia | 58.5 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 137 | Bolivia | 58.2 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 138 | Nepal | 58.2 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 139 | Egypt | 58.1 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 140 | Mongolia | 58 | ±9.2 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 141 | Armenia | 57.8 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 142 | Ghana | 57.8 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 143 | Argentina | 57.7 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 144 | Tajikistan | 57.7 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 145 | Guinea-Bissau | 57.4 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 146 | Democratic Republic of the Congo | 57.3 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 147 | Senegal | 57.2 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 148 | South Africa | 57.1 | ±9.5 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 149 | Ethiopia | 56.9 | ±9.5 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 150 | Namibia | 56.9 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 151 | Trinidad and Tobago | 56.9 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 152 | Suriname | 56.8 | ±9.2 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 153 | Brunei | 56.5 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 154 | Mali | 56.4 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 155 | Qatar | 56.3 | ±9.5 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 156 | Yemen | 56.3 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 157 | Rwanda | 56.1 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 158 | Mauritania | 55.9 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 159 | Comoros | 55.7 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 160 | Togo | 55.6 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 161 | Libya | 55.5 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 162 | Djibouti | 55.4 | ±9.5 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 163 | Mozambique | 55.3 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 164 | Chad | 55.2 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 165 | Georgia | 55.2 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 166 | Guyana | 55.2 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 167 | Zambia | 54.8 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 168 | Sudan | 54.7 | ±9.5 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 169 | Fiji | 54.4 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 170 | Sierra Leone | 54.3 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 171 | Mauritius | 54.2 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 172 | Côte d’Ivoire | 53.7 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 173 | Maldives | 53.7 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 174 | Bhutan | 53.6 | ±9.2 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 175 | Liberia | 53.5 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 176 | Gambia | 53.3 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 177 | Somalia | 53 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 178 | Uganda | 52.9 | ±9.5 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 179 | Gabon | 52.8 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 180 | Lesotho | 52.8 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 181 | Tanzania | 52.8 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 182 | Benin | 52.6 | ±9.5 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 183 | Cameroon | 52.6 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 184 | Malawi | 51.7 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 185 | South Sudan | 51.7 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 186 | Bahrain | 51.6 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 187 | Madagascar | 51.4 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 188 | Botswana | 51.1 | ±9.3 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 189 | Central African Republic | 50.6 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 190 | Kenya | 49.9 | ±9.5 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 191 | Pakistan | 49 | ±7 | C · reviewed calibration | Deteriorating | Preliminary estimate |
| 192 | Sao Tome and Principe | 48.4 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 193 | Republic of the Congo | 48.2 | ±9.5 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 194 | Seychelles | 46.1 | ±9.4 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |
| 195 | Cabo Verde | 43.6 | ±9.5 | D · model estimate | Improving | Preliminary estimate |